Bubble headlines distract from unseen opportunities — Great investments exist in any market environment — Patient, contrarian investing works in the end.

Disruptive innovation is always unforeseen — These disruptions invalidate economic forecasts — Unforeseen technological advanced will burst the AI bubble.

Lower US interest rates will impact holders of US government debt — Banks, Boomers, and bondholders have the most to lose — Declining interest rates will pressure bank earnings, the affluent US consumers, and value of the US dollar.

Rising interest rates provided stimulus to savers — Cutting rates will remove this interest income — Contrary to popular belief, cutting interest rates may harm the economy.

Uncertainty pervades investing — Godel, Popper, and Heisenberg examined uncertainty in their respective fields — Investors can benefit from understanding the science of uncertainty.

Congruence between inner values and outward behavior allows a person to lead an authentic life — Authenticity is required for investment success as well.

Too much tariff analysis is faulty — Basing investment analysis on insufficient data is dangerous.

The markets are too complex to simulate. Engineering research provides us with useful workarounds.

Due to data limitations, AI is unlikely to “solve the markets” anytime soon.

The best way to learn AI is to use it. I am building an investment analyst.

Investors must do their own work. Knowing your LLM will be required when using AI.

AI achieving human-level intelligence will require an ability to evaluate.

How I earned at 24,000,000,000% IRR in the 2021 crypto craze.

Capital allocation is a key focus for investors; more important is employee time allocation.

The fear of failure is fake. The fear of embarrassment, and its emotion, shame, thwart success.

Time is a critical factor in our lives but is often ignored.

The art & science of investment allocating.

VIEW AS PDF We fall in love with our stocks — Embracing bias is better than fighting natural instinct — Numerous benefits accrue to...

In a zero discount rate world, companies rationally pursue market domination. High discount rates mark the end of this paradigm.

Investing in “picks & shovels” is the same as investing directly in a mania.