The term “capital allocation” has many different meanings — Each level of allocator has its own decision-makers and risks — Confusing the levels undermines effective decision-making.

Every capital allocation decision creates or destroys value — The spectrum runs from wartime waste to world-changing innovation — Civilization’s progress depends on the return each decision earns.

Measuring returns is an art, not a science — Proper decisions require proper measurement — Today’s tools fall short in a risky world.

Share buybacks frequently destroy value — An active approach to repurchases is best — Executing this strategy is a challenge.

Sell discipline is the least written about part of investing — Every successful investor sells differently — The best investors decide the exit before the entry.

Market narratives create their own future — Regardless of AI’s impact, software companies have been harmed — Identifying value in software requires understanding the narrative.

Tech bubble carnage was not limited to internet stocks — In bubbles, even diversified investors are exposed — All investors must re-assess the risks in their portfolios.

Bubble headlines distract from unseen opportunities — Great investments exist in any market environment — Patient, contrarian investing works in the end.

Disruptive innovation is always unforeseen — These disruptions invalidate economic forecasts — Unforeseen technological advanced will burst the AI bubble.

Lower US interest rates will impact holders of US government debt — Banks, Boomers, and bondholders have the most to lose — Declining interest rates will pressure bank earnings, the affluent US consumers, and value of the US dollar.

Rising interest rates provided stimulus to savers — Cutting rates will remove this interest income — Contrary to popular belief, cutting interest rates may harm the economy.

Uncertainty pervades investing — Godel, Popper, and Heisenberg examined uncertainty in their respective fields — Investors can benefit from understanding the science of uncertainty.

Congruence between inner values and outward behavior allows a person to lead an authentic life — Authenticity is required for investment success as well.

Too much tariff analysis is faulty — Basing investment analysis on insufficient data is dangerous.

The markets are too complex to simulate. Engineering research provides us with useful workarounds.

Due to data limitations, AI is unlikely to “solve the markets” anytime soon.

The best way to learn AI is to use it. I am building an investment analyst.

Investors must do their own work. Knowing your LLM will be required when using AI.

AI achieving human-level intelligence will require an ability to evaluate.

How I earned at 24,000,000,000% IRR in the 2021 crypto craze.